HVS reads US RevPAR up just over 10 percent
HVS puts US RevPAR growth at just over 10 percent for the first half of September 2026. Rod Clough wrote the read. HVS published it on 30 September 2026.
The year-over-year comparison carries a Labor Day shift, Clough wrote. Net September performance held through the holiday timing.
What HVS expects into 2027
The firm reads corporate transient and meeting indicators for October through Thanksgiving as favourable. It expects December demand to hold steady.
HVS anticipates a slight moderation in ADR growth next year. Its forecast carries no World Cup lift for the US market.
Youth sports and domestic leisure carried the summer
Clough attributes part of the summer lift to youth sports bookings. He cites the Sports & Fitness Industry Association for rising participation in team sports. Collegiate sports move into their fall season, which he expects to lift fall RevPAR.
Domestic vacation travel was the second factor. Budgets first set for international trips covered rising rates at upper-upscale and luxury resorts, he wrote. Inbound international travel fell, particularly from Canada.
Staffing from the property interviews
Clough reports line-level staffing pressure. Owners are converting part-time line roles into full-time positions with benefits, and they are buying contract labour that scales with occupancy and booked events.
One full-service property he inspected runs a commercial robotic vacuum across its public areas during mostly evening and night hours. It covers guestroom hallways, the lobby, food and beverage outlets, and meeting rooms and foyers.
The transaction market
MSCI Real Capital Analytics counts almost 1,000 hotel sales in the first half of 2026, a rise of nearly 14 percent on the first half of 2025. The average cap rate on deals with a reported figure was 8.2 percent. The average price per key was $137,000, close to the first-half 2025 number.
Third-quarter volume tracks at 8.4 percent through mid-September, at $142,000 per key.
The day-room shelf behind the September numbers
A day room prices against the overnight rate of the same room. HVS reads the overnight side of the market. The day-use platforms publish the day side, city by city.
Dayuse carries a New York day-room average of US$120 on the 12 October 2026 read. Its recommended hourly property in the city is Aliz Hotel Times Square. Chicago reads US$110.61, with Home2 Suites by Hilton Chicago River North recommended. San Francisco reads US$119.61, with The Mosser Hotel recommended.
hotelSlots lists 933 hotels available in New York, 294 in Chicago and 562 in San Francisco. It shows 24 cards against each total.
The HVS figures describe the overnight market. A property that sells both windows sets the day rate from the same cost base as its overnight rate, so the ADR outlook for 2027 moves the day rate arithmetic with it.