What STR and Tourism Economics Revised
STR and Tourism Economics publish forecasts for 59 markets across Europe, the Middle East and Asia Pacific. The Q3 2026 edition went out through CoStar on 31 August 2026. Hotel Online carried the analysis on 6 October 2026.
Europe is a rate-led year. RevPAR across the 31 European markets is forecast to grow 1.2 per cent in 2026, and ADR contributes 0.8 points of it. The 2027 projection moves from a 0.2 per cent gain in the May edition to a 0.1 per cent decline as of August. Occupancy holds flat across the aggregate.
Occupancy Has No Headroom Left
Occupancy falls in 14 of the 31 European markets in 2027. Twelve of the other 17 markets grow occupancy by less than 1 per cent. The report names supply growth and baseline occupancy as the two causes.
Aggregate occupancy across the 31 markets holds at 76 per cent next year. Frankfurt sits lowest at 62.8 per cent and Gatwick highest at 86.7 per cent. Prague declines 0.2 per cent and still runs above 80 per cent for eight months.
Rate Carries the Growth
Rate growth outpaces occupancy growth across the aggregate in 2026 and again from 2028 to 2030. Milan hosted the Milano Cortina Olympic Games in February 2026 and is the one market where that order breaks in 2027.
Twenty of the 31 markets expect ADR growth ahead of occupancy next year. Heathrow shows the mechanism: occupancy forecast at 84.5 per cent supports 1.6 per cent of ADR growth.
Trade fairs drive the largest rate numbers. Cologne carries 6.9 per cent ADR growth, the highest of the 31 markets, on Anuga in October 2027 at 40.1 per cent and IDS in March 2027 at 18.3 per cent. Frankfurt's 2 per cent follows CPhI Worldwide in November 2027 at 18.4 per cent and ACHEMA in June 2027 at 14.3 per cent. London Luxury grows rate 1.2 per cent and Paris Luxury and Upper Upscale 1.9 per cent.
Supply Arrives Unevenly
Supply across the forecast markets grows 2.3 per cent in 2027, the highest average since 2022, when it reached 2.4 per cent. The range runs from just above zero in Barcelona to 8.1 per cent in Dublin. Fifteen markets expect supply growth above 2 per cent, and 10 of those 15 also forecast occupancy declines. Stuttgart, Frankfurt, London and Lisbon take above-average supply and still record occupancy gains.
Asia Pacific and the Middle East
The 16 Asia Pacific markets are cut to 3.9 per cent RevPAR growth for 2026 from 4.4 per cent. The revision comes entirely from occupancy, now 0.7 per cent. ADR growth is upgraded to 3.2 per cent. Six Mainland China markets drive the cut, and the 2027 outlook improves to 2.7 per cent with occupancy up 1.3 per cent and ADR up 1.4 per cent.
Mumbai runs the other way, with ADR forecast to rise 4.0 per cent in 2026 and 2.0 per cent in 2027 on domestic demand. Navi Mumbai International Airport opened in December 2025 and highway work has cut the drive from Pune in half.
The forecast names the Iran War as the region's headwind and still records summer performance across all four Middle East markets above the prior forecast. It withholds Q4 2026 upgrades and pens them from Q1 2027, on the expectation that international carriers resume routes by January. Abu Dhabi ends 2027 at 75.4 per cent occupancy and Dubai at 72.4 per cent, and rate stays close to 2025 levels.
Jeddah's RevPAR falls 4.9 per cent in 2026 on 7.2 per cent second-half supply growth and slower post-Hajj demand. Riyadh beats the forecast, with first-half demand down 14 per cent against a 17 per cent decline projected in May and RevPAR forecast up 18.6 per cent next year.
The Day-Use Lines the Forecast Does Not Carry
The forecast measures room-nights sold and the rate achieved. It carries no hourly rate line, no daytime occupancy and no revenue figure for a part-day slot.
A day-use booking sells part of a room-day whose payroll, utilities and administrative cost are committed first. That slot does not sit in the occupancy line the forecast holds flat at 76 per cent for 2027.
The Day-Use Shelf in the Forecast's London Market
dayuse.com listed 242 day hotels across its London pages on 14 October 2026, priced in US dollars. The first page of 50 cards ran from US$59.69 to US$360.78. Thirty-two cards carry four stars, 11 three stars, four five stars and three two stars. The leading window is 10 a.m. to 5 p.m., carried by 16 of the 50 cards.